Ministry of Economy of Ukraine
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Determination of key forecast indicators of economic and social development of Ukraine for 2020-2022
The Ministry of Economic Development, Trade and Agriculture of Ukraine adjusted key forecast indicators of economic and social development of Ukraine for 2020-2022, which were approved by the Decree of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine No. 883 dated 23.10.2019 “On Amendments to the the Decree of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine No. 555 dated May 15, 2019”.
Amendments were made, taking into account the current economic situation and changes in individual assumptions, first of all, lower than expected, level of world energy prices and stronger hryvnia exchange rate. Priority reforms envisaged by the Government’s Action Program were also taken into account, in particular:
- introduction of market circulation of agricultural lands;
- effective privatization;
- reforming of labor market rules;
- demonopolization and increased competition;
- further deregulation of the economy;
- implementing the measures to promote Ukrainian exports to foreign markets and reducing the barriers to export the Ukrainian goods and services.
Indices are developed according to two scenarios.
Thus, scenario 1 envisages further gradual acceleration of the economic growth and formation of appropriate basis for sustainable economic development in the medium term. This scenario predicts:
- real GDP growth by 3.7% in 2020, 3.8% in 2021 and 4.1% in 2022;
- Consumer Price Index (December to December of preceding year) – 105.5% in 2020, 105.3% in 2021, 105.1% in 2022.
The average annual exchange rate assumption is UAH 27.0 per USD in 2020, UAH 27.2 per USD in 2021, and UAH 27.5 per USD in 2022.
This forward-looking scenario will be used in the revision of the draft Law of Ukraine On State Budget of Ukraine for 2020 between first and second readings.
With successful implementation of the reforms for improvement of business climate, dramatic success in the fight against corruption, reforming of judiciary system and protection of property rights can trigger a surge in the investment activity, including through foreign capital inflow. Respective effects are estimated in scenario 2. This scenario predicts:
- real GDP growth by 4.8% in 2020, 5.5% in 2021 and 6.5% in 2022;
- Consumer Price Index (December to December of preceding year) – 105.8% in 2020, 105.0% in 2021 and in 2022.
The average annual exchange rate assumption is UAH 24.8 per USD in 2020, UAH 23.9 per USD in 2021, and UAH 24.2 per USD in 2022.
Presentation at link.