Ukraine's economy is recovering at a faster pace than was previously forecast. All institutions are now revising their GDP growth estimates upwards. This was stated by Yuliia Svyrydenko, First Vice Prime Minister of Ukraine, Minister of the Economy of Ukraine, in her speech at the Yalta European Strategy YES 2023 forum.

“Despite the loss of 29.6% of GDP last year, we managed to maintain macro-financial stability, which was ensured by the support of our partners and political decisions taken by the Ukrainian government. As a result, in 2023, the consumer inflation will slow to 10.6%, while the core inflation rate will decelerate to 9%. This is happening despite Russia's destruction of the Kakhovka dam and the return to pre-war fuel taxation levels. We forecast that inflation will continue to decelerate in the coming years. All institutions are revising their GDP growth forecasts upwards. We, the Ministry of Economy, are expecting growth in 2023 to be closer to 4%. This is a more optimistic forecast than that of the NBU, which expects growth at 2.9% of GDP,” said Yuliia Svyrydenko.

According to her, in the medium term, the economy can be expected to grow by 3.5% in 2024 and by 6.8% in 2025. However, even with these estimates, the economy has greater potential for recovery.

The Ministry of Economy also predicts that the unemployment rate will decline to 19% this year, and to 16.9% and 14.4% in 2024-2025, respectively.

“The key factor behind the high unemployment rate is the situation when the unemployed lack the skills required by employers. That's why we invest heavily in institutions that help train and retrain the unemployed,” Yuliia Svyrydenko continued.

The forecasts for the main sectors of the economy have also been improved. Thus, the harvest of grains and oilseeds will be higher than last year – at least 50 million tons of grains and oilseeds are expected to be exported, as well as at least 10 million tons of oil and oilcake.

Production in the steel industry is growing, and exports of steel products are increasing accordingly. However, total production volumes are almost four times lower now than by 2022. The forecast for this year is to produce 6 million tons of steel.

“I believe that we will be able to improve export logistics – mainly through the Danube Delta, Romania and through a secure corridor to the ports of the Greater Odessa region. Four ships have already used this corridor, and we are expecting two more ships to arrive. We are planning to introduce two insurance schemes – one supported by the Ukrainian government and one supported by the EBRD – before the big export season, which will start in November with maize exports. We are doing everything we can to reduce risks to the economy. And we expect the business to become more active in Ukraine, implementing both short-term and long-term projects,” said Yuliia Svyrydenko.

According to her, the next 4 years will see a transition to a fast-growing and future-oriented economy. For example, the Ukrainian Facility Recovery Plan envisages measures that will enable the implementation of large-scale “green metallurgy” projects and other environmentally friendly industrial projects that should strengthen Ukraine's integration into the EU and global markets.

“We believe that all the efforts made by the Ukrainian government to support business will encourage entrepreneurs to be as ambitious as possible and invest even more in the domestic economy,” summed up Yuliia Svyrydenko.